As I sit here watching the Warriors and Celtics battle through the playoffs, I can't help but think back to that pivotal moment in Game 3 of the ALDS when Rays' outfielder Randy Arozarena accidentally elbowed his own teammate, Manuel Margot. The image of Rosario dropping to the floor on his back for several seconds following the elbow to the face keeps flashing through my mind - not just because it was a scary baseball moment, but because it perfectly illustrates how quickly championship aspirations can change with one unexpected incident.
So what does a baseball injury have to do with NBA Finals predictions?
Everything, actually. In my fifteen years covering professional sports, I've learned that championships aren't just about talent - they're about durability and the ability to withstand unexpected blows. When I'm making my NBA Finals 2022 predictions, that moment of Rosario lying motionless reminds me how fragile championship runs can be. The team that ultimately wins will likely be the one best equipped to handle such sudden adversity.
Which teams are best positioned to handle playoff adversity?
The Warriors have shown incredible resilience throughout these playoffs, much like they did during their championship runs from 2015-2018. Their core has been through every possible playoff scenario, and that institutional knowledge matters. The Celtics, meanwhile, have demonstrated remarkable mental toughness after their slow start to the season. But here's what really stands out to me: both teams have shown they can win games in multiple ways, which is crucial when your primary game plan gets "elbowed in the face," so to speak.
What specific factors will determine the championship winner?
Let me break this down with some numbers that might surprise you. The Warriors are shooting 36.9% from three-point range in the playoffs while the Celtics are at 35.2% - that difference might seem small, but in a tight series, it could be decisive. More importantly, the team that wins the turnover battle has won 78% of the games in these playoffs. When I think about Rosario dropping to the floor, I'm reminded that sometimes the most important plays aren't the spectacular ones, but rather avoiding the catastrophic mistakes.
How much will coaching impact the Finals outcome?
Steve Kerr and Ime Udoka are both masters of adjustment, but they approach the game differently. Kerr's experience gives him an edge in my book - he's been through six previous Finals as a coach, winning three. Udoka is brilliant, but this is his first trip to the championship round as a head coach. The coaching chess match will be fascinating to watch, especially when you consider how quickly things can change - much like that moment when a simple defensive play turned dangerous for Rosario.
Which players are most likely to be Finals MVP?
Steph Curry is obviously the favorite if Golden State wins - he's averaging 26.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 6.2 assists in the playoffs. For Boston, Jayson Tatum has been spectacular, putting up 26.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. But here's my somewhat controversial take: I actually think Draymond Green could be the dark horse candidate. His defensive impact doesn't always show up in the box score, but it's the kind of game-changing presence that reminds me of how a single play - like the elbow that left Rosario on the ground - can shift entire series.
What's your actual prediction for the series outcome?
After watching both teams navigate through injuries, momentum shifts, and everything else the playoffs have thrown at them, I'm leaning toward the Warriors in seven games. Their championship experience gives them a slight edge in close games, and I believe Steph Curry is destined to finally win that Finals MVP award he's been chasing. The Celtics will push them to the limit - their defense is historically good - but Golden State's offensive versatility will ultimately prevail.
Any final thoughts before the series begins?
Watching playoff basketball always reminds me that championships are won through both brilliance and survival. The image of Rosario dropping to the floor represents those unpredictable moments that can derail even the most promising campaigns. The 2022 NBA champion will need skill, preparation, and perhaps a little luck to avoid their own version of that elbow to the face. Personally, I can't wait to see how it all unfolds - there's nothing quite like the drama of the NBA Finals.